State of Play
The increased load scenarios and analysis demonstrated that Virginia could support only a marginal increase in load by current planning assumptions, indicating considerable transmission investments are required to maintain reliability. An extended transmission outage affecting key defense areas such as Northern Virginia or Hampton Roads could simultaneously disrupt military command and control, degrade force deployment capabilities, and idle critical defense manufacturing, with impacts extending far beyond the Commonwealth’s borders.
The Challenge
The gap between the energy requirements of Virginia’s defense footprint and current grid capacity presents national security threats and critical constraints to the state’s economic growth opportunities. Existing grid planning processes do not systematically translate defense mission requirements into demand growth forecasts, benefit metrics, or project selection criteria.
What’s Next
Addressing Virginia’s grid vulnerabilities will require a new model of collaboration between the Department of War, utilities, state regulators, and regional organizations. The report provides concepts to catalyze conversation on national defense and Virginia’s economic future. Connect with the Converge Strategies team to discuss the analysis, align on the recommendations, and chart a coordinated path to implement next steps.
The following near-term actions would begin building the foundation for structured engagement between defense and energy stakeholders to align grid investments and national security interests.
1. Revise Virginia’s state energy plans to address defense grid risk and opportunities for transmission expansion. State energy plans should identify and prioritize energy infrastructure needs based on capacity constraints that create risk for Virginia’s defense and national security missions. It should direct the State Energy Office to coordinate with the DOE’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing and Grid Deployment Office on project eligibility and federal financing pathways. Most DOE-backed projects require coordination with federal partners, and the State Energy Office is well positioned to build and maintain those relationships.
2. Direct the Virginia State Energy Office to engage grid operators under FERC Order 1920. FERC Order 1920 requires transmission owners to conduct long-term scenario planning and strengthens the role of states in identifying transmission needs. Virginia should use updated state energy planning as the foundation for sustained engagement with PJM, submit defense-informed transmission needs to PJM’s RTEP process, tag Virginia projects of “national interest” within that process, and begin exploring cost allocation for projects based on their contribution to national defense.
3. Align Virginia’s grid requirements with the NIETC designation process. The National Interest Electric Transmission Corridor (NIETC) statute provides a federal pathway for designating Virginia’s defense corridors as national priorities. Virginia’s State Energy Office should proactively identify corridors that could qualify based on capacity constraints with a clear national security nexus. This study’s findings provide a strong starting foundation. Governor Spanberger can also elevate energy planning with neighboring state counterparts through interstate compacts, which can create legal frameworks to jointly plan, permit, and sometimes co-finance cross-state transmission lines. Interstate coordination can strengthen the case for NIETC designation, federal financing, and FERC- required project siting approvals.
4 Consider whether utilities should incorporate defense footprint forecasting into their IRPs. The SCC directed Dominion to extend IRP planning horizons to 20 years and incorporate scenario modeling for large, anticipated loads. Stakeholders could explore whether Dominion should develop dedicated scenarios that account for the energy demands of Virginia’s military installations, defense communities, and industrial base. Virginia’s concentration of defense assets does not currently receive scenario treatment comparable to data centers. Utilities could consult with the Virginia Department of Military Affairs, regional commissions, and senior DoW mission commanders in developing defense footprint load forecasts. A designated Energy-Defense Liaison within the Virginia government is another option for addressing persistent communication gaps and ensuring that defense energy needs are considered during power grid planning processes.
5 Engage DoW on shared infrastructure investments to enhance mission assurance. Cost allocation will be a persistent challenge, given Virginia ratepayer concerns about rising electricity rates. While the DoW has limited tools for directly financing grid enhancement, existing programs can validate needs and help defray the costs of targeted upgrades. The Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation (OLDCC) could fund a statewide or regional readiness review to validate and extend this study’s findings, including threat vectors this study deliberately excluded. That review could provide the basis for unlocking DoW funds through programs such as the Defense Community Infrastructure Program (DCIP), which Congress has typically funded at approximately $125 million annually. Virginia state officials and energy planners could engage senior DoW leaders on opportunities to fund the lower-cost transmission upgrades identified in this study and align DCIP grants with other public and private financing pathways.
About Converge Strategies, LLC
Converge Strategies, LLC provides consulting services focused on the intersection of energy resilience and national security. www.convergestrategies.com
Media Contact
Adair Douglas
Converge Strategies
adouglas@convergestrategies.com
